CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-04-27T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-27T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24815/-1
CME Note: Bright CME NE in SOHO (covered by nighttime data gap in STEREO). Source: large filament eruption with extensive dimming (N10E55) SW of AR 3289 starting ~01:58Z seen in AIA 304, 194 and EUVI A 195 after the night time data gap.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-29T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 25.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Apr 28 1328 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO/C2 images starting from yesterday 01:25 UT and has a change to become geo-effective. The estimated speed of the CME is 800 km/s and the arrival day is 29 Apr.

A partial halo CME automatically detected by CACTus at Apr 26 23:34 UT is a back-sided event.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium

Lead Time: 23.47 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-04-28T13:32Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy